Why Are Liverpool Suddenly Shit?
Here is one plausable answer.
Liverpool have a problem. They have conceded 51 big chances so far this season (according to Opta). They have conceded 22 goals, lost six games already, and are sixth in the table with only 28 points after 17 games.
I've seen a lot of fans unhappy with the team. That's fair, I'm one of them. But I don't understand some of the takes being put out by people. Some of them are questioning why Liverpool have let go of their pressing and intensity when that's what has made them such a great team.
I don't get it. It's not like Klopp has called the players into the meeting room and said, "You know we were a great high pressing team, right? You know that allowed us to win trophies, right? Let's bin that."
Yes, Liverpool's pressing has been less effective this season. The team's "Passes Per Defensive Action" (PPDA), which is used to measure pressure applied to the opposition, is 10.40 this season.1 For context, it was 8.07 last season and 8.01 in the season Liverpool won the league under Klopp. Clearly, there is a big drop-off.
But why is that the case? And why have Liverpool started leaking so many big chances in every game?
There are always multiple reasons for something as complex as this, but one possible reason in my opinion is the current Liverpool midfield.
I think at the start of the sea
son our forward press was the same as it's always been, but with one difference: it wasn't being backed up well by the midfield.
This meant that teams were playing through us too easily and also exposing our high defensive line (e.g. Napoli away). This naturally caused our defence to be more cautious in being higher up and aggressive like they were in the past. To counteract that problem, Klopp and co have probably made the forward press a bit more passive than usual, because it just invites teams to play through/behind us.
The vintage Liverpool team under Klopp was built on the midfield-3 doing the job of 4-5 people. The "workhorse" midfield provided the base for Trent and Robbo to join the front-3 and made sure Liverpool effectively counter pressed near the opp. box. Plus it had Mane and Firmino who were very good at keeping/progressing the ball in very high-pressure situations. This allowed them to keep the ball in and around the final third for most of the match and suffocate teams into submission.
Mane isn't here anymore. Firmino is not at the level he once was. Therefore, you don't have a forward line that is as good at keeping the ball in the final third. Your current forward line is more geared towards quick vertical attacks that will exploit spaces behind or around your defensive line.
That's one of the reasons why Liverpool's game has been much more vertical this season. A vertical possession game naturally includes more opportunities to lose possession (which then requires a more intact counter pressing structure).
Add those two things together: a much more vertical in-possession game, and a midfield line that is not able to carry out the intense high-intensity demands of pressing/counter pressing in Klopp's Liverpool midfield. The result is Liverpool's current situation: a team who cannot keep possession for long, and every time they lose it, the opposition look like they can create a chance.
If you look at our current midfield make-up, it's four players who are around/over 30 who have played an insane amount of minutes: Henderson, Thiago, Fabinho, and Milner. Three of them are over 32. Apart from this, it's two players who are super young and being integrated into the team: Curtis Jones and Elliott (the latter has been turned into a midfielder). What do you have left? Naby Keita and Chamberlain, both of whom are more available to the physio than to Klopp.
I understand FSG's model. I understand the transfer policy and strategy. I understand how this Liverpool does business. I've been one of the biggest defenders of this whole enterprise. But even I cannot defend only signing one midfielder in 4.5 years.
I, along with a lot of other people, could see this problem coming from a mile away. How Liverpool's technical football operation, which is lauded for being so methodical, analytical, and strategic, did not see this problem coming is beyond me.
And now it might just cost them Champions League football for the first time under Jurgen Klopp.
Source: Understat